Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints22
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists5
- Caleb MartinRebounds9
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points30
- Nikola JokicAssists7
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–103
- Q43.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. enters the game for Caleb Martin97–103
- Q43.1Heat Full timeout97–103
- Q43.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 2 of 297–103
- Q43.1Christian Braun enters the game for Reggie Jackson97–102
- Q43.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes free throw 1 of 297–102
- Q43.1Caleb Martin personal take foul97–101
- Q44.1Nuggets Full timeout97–101
- Q44.1Caleb Martin enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.97–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q228.1Caleb Martin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 49 – 54 DEN · MIA 26% → 34% +8MIA 26% → 34%+8 pts
- Q311:13Jimmy Butler makes 25-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 54 – 56 DEN · MIA 33% → 42% +9MIA 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q310:18Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIA 54 – 61 DEN · DEN 64% → 72% +8DEN 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q37:54Terry Rozier makes 23-foot three pointerMIA 61 – 63 DEN · MIA 32% → 41% +9MIA 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q34:24Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Nikola Jokic assists)MIA 65 – 74 DEN · DEN 72% → 80% +8DEN 72% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -0.5
- DEN 52%
- Fair odds
- DEN -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 104.8 – 105.8 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +16 | +32 | MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +11 Elo | DEN 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 114.617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 110.47th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 116.36th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 112.111th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.4 | Pace | 98.527th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 23–52nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+16 Elo- Tyler Herro left knee injury−3 Elo
Nuggets
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.