Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints32
- Kyle KuzmaAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds11
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints38
- Jordan ClarksonAssists7
- John CollinsRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–127
- Q40.1Jordan Clarkson defensive rebound115–127
- Q41.1Jordan Poole misses 25-foot three point jumper115–127
- Q44.1Wizards offensive team rebound115–127
- Q44.1John Collins blocks Bilal Coulibaly 's 3-foot two point shot115–127
- Q411.1shot clock turnover115–127
- Q437.1Jordan Clarkson defensive rebound115–127
- Q437.1Kyle Kuzma misses 23-foot three point jumper115–127
- Q439.1Wizards offensive team rebound115–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:12Johnny Juzang makes 22-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)WSH 105 – 105 UTAH · UTAH 45% → 58% +13UTAH 45% → 58%+13 pts
- Q47:10Collin Sexton makes 24-foot three pointerWSH 110 – 108 UTAH · UTAH 31% → 46% +15UTAH 31% → 46%+15 pts
- Q45:40Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)WSH 111 – 111 UTAH · UTAH 38% → 56% +18UTAH 38% → 56%+18 pts
- Q45:05Collin Sexton makes 9-foot two point shot (Jordan Clarkson assists)WSH 113 – 113 UTAH · UTAH 43% → 56% +13UTAH 43% → 56%+13 pts
- Q44:08Jordan Clarkson makes two point shotWSH 113 – 115 UTAH · UTAH 55% → 69% +13UTAH 55% → 69%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -5
- UTAH 69%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -210
- WSH +210 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 119.7 – 125.3 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1335 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | −40 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +135 Elo | UTAH 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 117.59th of 30 |
| 30th of 30124.6 | Points allowed | 120.526th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.0 | Margin | −3.023rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 114.216th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.5 | Defense rating | 117.025th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Pace | 102.18th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–26 | Road vs home | 18–1113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.