Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints37
- Coby WhiteAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds13
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints20
- De'Aaron FoxAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds21
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–109
- Q40.0Alex Caruso defensive rebound113–109
- Q40.0De'Aaron Fox misses 22-foot three point shot113–109
- Q43.1Malik Monk enters the game for Alex Len113–109
- Q43.1Kings Full timeout113–109
- Q43.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2113–109
- Q43.1Alex Len enters the game for Malik Monk112–109
- Q43.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2112–109
- Q43.1Malik Monk personal take foul111–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:36Ayo Dosunmu makes 23-foot three point shot (Coby White assists)CHI 100 – 104 SAC · CHI 11% → 23% +12CHI 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q43:05Kevin Huerter makes two point shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)CHI 102 – 108 SAC · SAC 81% → 90% +9SAC 81% → 90%+9 pts
- Q42:57Coby White makes driving layupCHI 104 – 108 SAC · CHI 10% → 19% +9CHI 10% → 19%+9 pts
- Q41:32Coby White makes driving layup (Alex Caruso assists)CHI 109 – 109 SAC · CHI 27% → 49% +22CHI 27% → 49%+22 pts
- Q447.1Coby White makes 5-foot two point shotCHI 111 – 109 SAC · CHI 49% → 79% +29CHI 49% → 79%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -2
- SAC 58%
- Fair odds
- SAC -134
- CHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 115.5 – 117.7 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −1 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +55 Elo | SAC 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 118.28th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 117.922nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 115.413th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 115.121st of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 101.312th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 16–1014th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.