LA Clippers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints28
- Kawhi LeonardAssists7
- Mason PlumleeRebounds11
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints23
- Alperen SengunAssists14
- Alperen SengunRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–116
- Q416.1Alperen Sengun makes driving layup122–116
- Q423.2James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2122–114
- Q423.2James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2121–114
- Q423.2Alperen Sengun personal foul120–114
- Q428.2Alperen Sengun makes 2-foot dunk (Jalen Green assists)120–114
- Q436.1James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2120–112
- Q436.1James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2119–112
- Q436.1Alperen Sengun personal foul118–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:16Kawhi Leonard makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 99 – 101 HOU · LAC 28% → 44% +16LAC 28% → 44%+16 pts
- Q45:13Fred VanVleet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)LAC 101 – 106 HOU · HOU 58% → 75% +17HOU 58% → 75%+17 pts
- Q44:29Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 106 – 108 HOU · LAC 23% → 41% +18LAC 23% → 41%+18 pts
- Q42:48Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 111 – 109 HOU · LAC 45% → 70% +25LAC 45% → 70%+25 pts
- Q41:54Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)LAC 114 – 112 HOU · HOU 8% → 28% +19HOU 8% → 28%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4
- LAC 66%
- Fair odds
- LAC -178
- HOU +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.6 – 110.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +18 | −13 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +112 Elo | LAC 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 64.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 112.821st of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 112.811th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.6 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 110.624th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 110.55th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.7 | Pace | 101.213th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 21–109th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.