Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints34
- Fred VanVleetAssists11
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Devin BookerAssists5
- Royce O'NealeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–109
- Q43.0Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound118–109
- Q43.0Josh Okogie misses 27-foot three point jumper118–109
- Q414.0shot clock turnover118–109
- Q438.1Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound118–109
- Q439.0Jabari Smith Jr. blocks Theo Maledon's driving layup118–109
- Q448.0Josh Okogie defensive rebound118–109
- Q450.0Dillon Brooks misses 27-foot three point jumper118–109
- Q41:03Jalen Green enters the game for Amen Thompson118–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:08Royce O'Neale makes 28-foot three pointer (Grayson Allen assists)HOU 97 – 90 PHX · PHX 18% → 28% +11PHX 18% → 28%+11 pts
- Q46:49Josh Okogie makes two point shot (Devin Booker assists)HOU 99 – 98 PHX · PHX 43% → 54% +11PHX 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q46:32Fred VanVleet makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 102 – 98 PHX · HOU 47% → 63% +17HOU 47% → 63%+17 pts
- Q45:04Kevin Durant makes 16-foot pullup jump shotHOU 106 – 102 PHX · PHX 22% → 33% +11PHX 22% → 33%+11 pts
- Q44:48Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 109 – 102 PHX · HOU 68% → 83% +15HOU 68% → 83%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -7.5
- PHX 78%
- Fair odds
- PHX -267
- HOU +267 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.0 – 117.5 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +44 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +215 Elo | PHX 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 72.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.7 | Points scored | 117.411th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 114.315th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +3.111th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 116.09th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 113.013th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.615th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–24 | Road vs home | 20–1111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–2 PHX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.