Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints34
- Fred VanVleetAssists5
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds16
Suns- Devin BookerPoints35
- Royce O'NealeAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–110
- Q40.1Jalen Green makes 27-foot step back jumpshot105–110
- Q45.1Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2102–110
- Q45.1Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2102–109
- Q45.1Fred VanVleet personal foul102–108
- Q46.0Kevin Durant defensive rebound102–108
- Q46.0Jock Landale misses tip shot102–108
- Q46.0Jock Landale offensive rebound102–108
- Q410.1Fred VanVleet misses driving layup102–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:28Jalen Green makes 24-foot three point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 3 – 2 PHX · HOU 25% → 31% +5HOU 25% → 31%+5 pts
- Q19:47Devin Booker makes 27-foot three pointerHOU 3 – 7 PHX · PHX 73% → 78% +5PHX 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q18:53Jalen Green makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 8 – 10 PHX · HOU 21% → 25% +5HOU 21% → 25%+5 pts
- Q46:57Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 84 – 90 PHX · HOU 7% → 15% +8HOU 7% → 15%+8 pts
- Q46:48Devin Booker makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 84 – 93 PHX · PHX 85% → 93% +8PHX 85% → 93%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -7.5
- PHX 77%
- Fair odds
- PHX -252
- HOU +252 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.8 – 117.8 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −34 | +43 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +205 Elo | PHX 76.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.8 | Points scored | 117.510th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 114.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +3.011th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 113.214th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.516th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–23 | Road vs home | 19–1112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.