Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints36
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Josh GiddeyRebounds9
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points20
- Jabari Smith Jr.Assists4
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–110
- Q413.1shot clock turnover123–110
- Q437.1Cam Whitmore makes free throw 2 of 2123–110
- Q437.1Rockets offensive team rebound123–109
- Q437.1Cam Whitmore misses free throw 1 of 2123–109
- Q437.1Luguentz Dort shooting foul123–109
- Q448.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layup123–109
- Q41:02Aaron Holiday lost ball turnover (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)121–109
- Q41:14Alperen Sengun defensive rebound121–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:15Chet Holmgren makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 60 – 62 HOU · OKC 43% → 52% +9OKC 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q39:47Dillon Brooks makes 22-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)OKC 62 – 67 HOU · HOU 48% → 57% +9HOU 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q35:23Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)OKC 72 – 73 HOU · OKC 43% → 54% +10OKC 43% → 54%+10 pts
- Q32:11Fred VanVleet makes 24-foot three pointerOKC 80 – 78 HOU · HOU 26% → 36% +10HOU 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q354.1Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 85 – 81 HOU · OKC 60% → 71% +11OKC 60% → 71%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 67%
- Fair odds
- OKC -162
- HOU +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 118.2 – 114.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | −18 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +123 Elo | OKC 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.4 | Points scored | 113.221st of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 112.911th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +0.318th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 111.224th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 110.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.4 | Pace | 100.913th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 20–98th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.