Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints23
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Jalen WilliamsAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–112
- Q43.0Gordon Hayward defensive rebound95–112
- Q45.1Jock Landale misses 7-foot hook shot95–112
- Q419.1Reggie Bullock Jr. defensive rebound95–112
- Q421.1Kenrich Williams misses 22-foot three point jumper95–112
- Q434.1Jock Landale kicked ball violation95–112
- Q450.0Aaron Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jae'Sean Tate assists)95–112
- Q41:02Keyontae Johnson makes two point shot92–112
- Q41:02Keyontae Johnson offensive rebound92–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:12Jeff Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 40 – 37 OKC · HOU 30% → 37% +7HOU 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q24:46Jalen Williams makes 28-foot step back jumpshotHOU 46 – 46 OKC · OKC 61% → 69% +7OKC 61% → 69%+7 pts
- Q22:39Jaylin Williams makes 23-foot three point shot (Luguentz Dort assists)HOU 48 – 51 OKC · OKC 68% → 75% +7OKC 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q36:56Josh Giddey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)HOU 61 – 68 OKC · OKC 77% → 84% +7OKC 77% → 84%+7 pts
- Q34:19Jalen Green makes 28-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 70 – 73 OKC · HOU 18% → 26% +8HOU 18% → 26%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8
- OKC 79%
- Fair odds
- OKC -282
- HOU +282 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 112.4 – 120.3 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1594 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | +40 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +225 Elo | OKC 78.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 73.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.1 | Points scored | 121.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 113.313th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +8.12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 118.62nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 110.75th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.511th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305–22 | Road vs home | 23–63rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.