San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints22
- Tre JonesAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints45
- Fred VanVleetAssists10
- Alperen SengunRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–114
- Q42.1Alperen Sengun defensive rebound101–114
- Q46.0Jeremy Sochan misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot101–114
- Q49.1shot clock turnover101–114
- Q434.1Alperen Sengun defensive rebound101–114
- Q435.2Jeremy Sochan misses 25-foot three point jumper101–114
- Q443.2Alperen Sengun makes 28-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)101–114
- Q41:00Cam Whitmore defensive rebound101–111
- Q41:02Devin Vassell misses 28-foot three point shot101–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:46Jeremy Sochan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 58 – 56 HOU · SA 41% → 50% +9SA 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q32:26Malaki Branham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 70 – 72 HOU · SA 27% → 38% +10SA 27% → 38%+10 pts
- Q32:03Fred VanVleet makes 27-foot three pointerSA 70 – 75 HOU · HOU 62% → 73% +10HOU 62% → 73%+10 pts
- Q32.0Malaki Branham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 77 – 80 HOU · SA 23% → 34% +10SA 23% → 34%+10 pts
- Q46:02Alperen Sengun makes 28-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)SA 90 – 97 HOU · HOU 75% → 87% +12HOU 75% → 87%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2.5
- HOU 61%
- Fair odds
- HOU -144
- SA +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 112.3 – 115.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | −32 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +76 Elo | HOU 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.3 | Points scored | 112.821st of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 113.011th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 110.524th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 110.75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.213th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 306–27 | Road vs home | 20–109th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.