Indiana Pacers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- T.J. McConnellPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints31
- Victor WembanyamaAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–117
- Q422.0Aaron Nesmith enters the game for Bennedict Mathurin105–117
- Q422.0Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Tre Jones105–117
- Q422.0Dominick Barlow enters the game for Jeremy Sochan105–117
- Q422.0Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Keldon Johnson105–117
- Q423.0shot clock turnover105–117
- Q446.0Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2105–117
- Q446.0Kendall Brown enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton104–117
- Q446.0Blake Wesley enters the game for Devin Vassell104–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:59Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 97 – 98 SA · IND 32% → 49% +17IND 32% → 49%+17 pts
- Q45:40Keldon Johnson makes 25-foot three pointer (Devin Vassell assists)IND 97 – 101 SA · SA 52% → 69% +17SA 52% → 69%+17 pts
- Q45:25Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 100 – 101 SA · IND 30% → 48% +18IND 30% → 48%+18 pts
- Q44:56T.J. McConnell makes 10-foot pullup jump shotIND 102 – 103 SA · IND 35% → 48% +13IND 35% → 48%+13 pts
- Q44:40Victor Wembanyama makes 4-foot two point shot (Jeremy Sochan assists)IND 102 – 105 SA · SA 53% → 66% +13SA 53% → 66%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 66%
- Fair odds
- IND -169
- SA +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 122.8 – 118.8 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +11 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +113 Elo | IND 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.3 | Points scored | 112.322nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.1 | Points allowed | 120.626th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −8.327th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 108.227th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 116.224th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.3 | Pace | 103.43rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 6–2128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–0 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.