New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints30
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists7
- Naji MarshallRebounds8
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–123
- Q418.1CJ McCollum makes 1-foot driving dunk114–123
- Q423.1shot clock turnover112–123
- Q446.1Tyrese Haliburton defensive rebound112–123
- Q448.0Herbert Jones misses free throw 2 of 2112–123
- Q448.0Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Brandon Ingram112–123
- Q448.0Naji Marshall enters the game for Zion Williamson112–123
- Q448.0Obi Toppin enters the game for Myles Turner112–123
- Q448.0Herbert Jones makes free throw 1 of 2112–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:30Zion Williamson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)NO 102 – 108 IND · NO 9% → 17% +9NO 9% → 17%+9 pts
- Q43:44Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 107 – 112 IND · NO 6% → 16% +10NO 6% → 16%+10 pts
- Q43:15CJ McCollum makes 14-foot pullup jump shotNO 109 – 112 IND · NO 14% → 25% +11NO 14% → 25%+11 pts
- Q42:57Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot step back jumpshotNO 109 – 115 IND · IND 76% → 91% +15IND 76% → 91%+15 pts
- Q42:07Pascal Siakam makes 3-foot layup (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NO 111 – 117 IND · IND 85% → 94% +9IND 85% → 94%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1.5
- IND 56%
- Fair odds
- IND -150
- NO +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 116.7 – 119.8 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +38 | +52 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +43 Elo | IND 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 123.71st of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 122.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +1.613th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 118.52nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 117.026th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.2 | Pace | 104.42nd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 19–1215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.