Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Isaiah JacksonPoints13
- Jarace WalkerAssists6
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds11
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints34
- Zion WilliamsonAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–129
- Q46.1Matt Ryan offensive rebound102–129
- Q410.0Jeremiah Robinson-Earl misses 23-foot three point jumper102–129
- Q420.0Cody Zeller offensive rebound102–129
- Q423.0Matt Ryan misses 25-foot three point jumper102–129
- Q434.2Oscar Tshiebwe makes free throw 2 of 2102–129
- Q434.2Pacers offensive team rebound101–129
- Q434.2Oscar Tshiebwe misses free throw 1 of 2101–129
- Q434.2Cody Zeller shooting foul101–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:37Pascal Siakam makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)IND 3 – 0 NO · IND 46% → 53% +6IND 46% → 53%+6 pts
- Q110:30Jonas Valanciunas makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)IND 5 – 5 NO · NO 47% → 54% +6NO 47% → 54%+6 pts
- Q19:08CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)IND 7 – 12 NO · NO 58% → 64% +6NO 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q18:36CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three pointer (Jonas Valanciunas assists)IND 9 – 15 NO · NO 60% → 66% +6NO 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q18:08Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 12 – 17 NO · IND 30% → 36% +6IND 30% → 36%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1.5
- NO 56%
- Fair odds
- NO -116
- IND +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 117.7 – 118.9 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | +31 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +45 Elo | NO 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 53.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.7 | Points scored | 116.014th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.0 | Points allowed | 111.98th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 115.513th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 111.48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.4 | Pace | 100.218th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 17–1217th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.