Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Chet HolmgrenAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds7
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints28
- Devin VassellAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–132
- Q41.1shot clock turnover118–132
- Q424.0Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound118–132
- Q428.1Isaiah Joe misses 25-foot three point jumper118–132
- Q439.0Devin Vassell makes free throw 1 of 1118–132
- Q439.0Kenrich Williams enters the game for Jalen Williams118–131
- Q439.0Cason Wallace enters the game for Chet Holmgren118–131
- Q439.0Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander118–131
- Q439.0Chet Holmgren shooting foul118–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:15Jeremy Sochan makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)OKC 105 – 106 SA · SA 30% → 44% +14SA 30% → 44%+14 pts
- Q47:19Devin Vassell makes 29-foot three pointer (Cedi Osman assists)OKC 107 – 110 SA · SA 40% → 56% +16SA 40% → 56%+16 pts
- Q44:53Jeremy Sochan makes two point shotOKC 111 – 116 SA · SA 61% → 73% +12SA 61% → 73%+12 pts
- Q44:39Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot driving dunk (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 113 – 116 SA · OKC 26% → 38% +12OKC 26% → 38%+12 pts
- Q43:46Tre Jones makes 24-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)OKC 113 – 119 SA · SA 65% → 82% +18SA 65% → 82%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9.5
- OKC 82%
- Fair odds
- OKC -289
- SA +289 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 121.2 – 113.1 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1348 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | −6 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +264 Elo | OKC 82.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.3 | Points scored | 111.924th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 120.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.3 | Margin | −8.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 107.827th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 116.224th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.5 | Pace | 103.43rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 4th of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 5–2128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 2–0 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.