Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints41
- Dejounte MurrayAssists6
- Clint CapelaRebounds11
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points21
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists6
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–92
- Q49.0De'Andre Hunter defensive rebound99–92
- Q412.1Lamar Stevens misses 27-foot three point jumper99–92
- Q419.1Clint Capela makes free throw 2 of 299–92
- Q419.1Clint Capela makes free throw 1 of 298–92
- Q419.1Vince Williams Jr. personal take foul97–92
- Q419.1Clint Capela defensive rebound97–92
- Q421.1Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 6-foot two point shot97–92
- Q427.2Grizzlies Full timeout97–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:55Vince Williams Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Wenyen Gabriel assists)ATL 83 – 81 MEM · MEM 28% → 42% +14MEM 28% → 42%+14 pts
- Q47:01De'Andre Hunter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)ATL 87 – 81 MEM · ATL 64% → 78% +14ATL 64% → 78%+14 pts
- Q45:34Jake LaRavia makes 26-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)ATL 87 – 84 MEM · MEM 19% → 34% +15MEM 19% → 34%+15 pts
- Q45:09Dejounte Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)ATL 90 – 84 MEM · ATL 67% → 82% +15ATL 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q43:18Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)ATL 95 – 90 MEM · ATL 64% → 83% +19ATL 64% → 83%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -0.5
- MEM 48%
- Fair odds
- MEM -123
- ATL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 112.4 – 114.0 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | −19 | ATL: Missing Kobe Bufkin −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MEM: Missing GG Jackson −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +16 Elo | ATL 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.2 | Points scored | 106.230th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.0 | Points allowed | 112.59th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.8 | Margin | −6.325th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 105.430th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 111.710th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.0 | Pace | 100.217th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 3011–18 | Road vs home | 7–2428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−37 Elo- Kobe Bufkin left toe−1 Elo
Grizzlies
−19 Elo- GG Jackson left knee soreness−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 MEM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.