Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points30
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists9
- Jake LaRaviaRebounds13
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points25
- Jeff Dowtin Jr.Assists6
- Paul ReedRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–109
- Q41.0Jaren Jackson Jr. defensive rebound115–109
- Q41.0Nicolas Batum misses 20-foot jumper115–109
- Q43.0Vince Williams Jr. lost ball turnover (Nicolas Batum steals)115–109
- Q45.1Vince Williams Jr. defensive rebound115–109
- Q48.1Buddy Hield misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot115–109
- Q417.1Jake LaRavia makes free throw 2 of 2115–109
- Q417.1Jake LaRavia makes free throw 1 of 2114–109
- Q417.1Kelly Oubre Jr. personal take foul113–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:33Santi Aldama makes 25-foot three point jumper (GG Jackson assists)MEM 95 – 98 PHI · MEM 24% → 36% +13MEM 24% → 36%+13 pts
- Q45:00Luke Kennard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 100 – 102 PHI · MEM 21% → 38% +17MEM 21% → 38%+17 pts
- Q44:12Santi Aldama makes 1-foot two point shot (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 102 – 104 PHI · MEM 25% → 37% +12MEM 25% → 37%+12 pts
- Q42:41Jake LaRavia makes 1-foot dunkMEM 107 – 104 PHI · MEM 59% → 75% +16MEM 59% → 75%+16 pts
- Q425.1Buddy Hield makes 28-foot three point shot (Tobias Harris assists)MEM 111 – 109 PHI · PHI <1% → 13% +13PHI <1% → 13%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- MEM 47%
- Fair odds
- MEM -108
- PHI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 108.8 – 108.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −21 | −89 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +18 Elo | PHI 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.1 | Points scored | 117.013th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 113.714th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.5 | Margin | +3.210th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 116.27th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 113.014th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.1 | Pace | 100.317th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 19–1316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.