Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jabari WalkerPoints19
- Anfernee SimonsAssists8
- Jabari WalkerRebounds10
Grizzlies- Jake LaRaviaPoints21
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists5
- Santi AldamaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–92
- Q415.1Jabari Walker defensive rebound122–92
- Q419.1Lamar Stevens misses 19-foot pullup jump shot122–92
- Q444.0Rayan Rupert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)122–92
- Q458.1Lamar Stevens makes free throw 1 of 1119–92
- Q458.1Ibou Badji shooting foul119–91
- Q458.1Lamar Stevens makes driving layup119–91
- Q41:03Matt Hurt defensive rebound119–89
- Q41:06Ashton Hagans misses 7-foot two point shot119–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:37GG Jackson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)POR 37 – 35 MEM · MEM 49% → 57% +8MEM 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q310:54Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 56 – 45 MEM · POR 63% → 71% +8POR 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q310:04Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)POR 59 – 47 MEM · POR 67% → 75% +8POR 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q34:17Lamar Stevens makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)POR 74 – 68 MEM · MEM 28% → 38% +10MEM 28% → 38%+10 pts
- Q34:01Duop Reath makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 77 – 68 MEM · POR 63% → 72% +10POR 63% → 72%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4.5
- MEM 67%
- Fair odds
- MEM -184
- POR +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 103.7 – 108.3 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1358 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | −50 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +122 Elo | MEM 66.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 64.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 106.430th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 112.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.0 | Margin | −6.325th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 105.730th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 112.011th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.5 | Pace | 100.317th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 26th of 306–22 | Road vs home | 7–2227th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 1–1 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.