Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points30
- Kyle LowryAssists5
- Tobias HarrisRebounds9
Nets- Dorian Finney-SmithPoints20
- Dennis SchroderAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–112
- Q41.1Nicolas Batum out of bounds bad pass turnover107–112
- Q42.1Cameron Payne enters the game for Paul Reed107–112
- Q42.1KJ Martin enters the game for Tobias Harris107–112
- Q42.176ers Full timeout107–112
- Q42.1Lonnie Walker IV makes free throw 2 of 2107–112
- Q42.1Paul Reed enters the game for Cameron Payne107–111
- Q42.1Nets offensive team rebound107–111
- Q42.1Lonnie Walker IV misses free throw 1 of 2107–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:17Tobias Harris makes 14-foot pullup jump shotPHI 98 – 99 BKN · PHI 27% → 42% +15PHI 27% → 42%+15 pts
- Q42:53Dorian Finney-Smith makes tip shotPHI 98 – 101 BKN · BKN 59% → 74% +15BKN 59% → 74%+15 pts
- Q42:40Kyle Lowry makes 1-foot layup (Nicolas Batum assists)PHI 100 – 101 BKN · PHI 25% → 41% +16PHI 25% → 41%+16 pts
- Q42:21Dennis Schroder makes driving layupPHI 100 – 103 BKN · BKN 60% → 76% +17BKN 60% → 76%+17 pts
- Q41:37Dorian Finney-Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)PHI 100 – 106 BKN · BKN 81% → 96% +15BKN 81% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -2
- BKN 57%
- Fair odds
- BKN -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.0 – 110.7 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −104 | −41 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +52 Elo | BKN 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 52.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 112.024th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 114.215th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −2.221st of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 112.222nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.4 | Pace | 99.323rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–12 | Road vs home | 15–1823rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−104 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−41 Elo- Cam Thomas right ankle injury−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.