Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints28
- Dejounte MurrayAssists5
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds6
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints29
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Dennis SchroderRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–124
- Q40.1shot clock turnover97–124
- Q424.1shot clock turnover97–124
- Q448.1Bruno Fernando makes layup (Garrison Mathews assists)97–124
- Q41:00Wesley Matthews defensive rebound95–124
- Q41:04Dennis Smith Jr. misses driving dunk95–124
- Q41:14Trendon Watford defensive rebound95–124
- Q41:17Garrison Mathews misses 28-foot three point jumper95–124
- Q41:29Keita Bates-Diop makes free throw 2 of 295–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:35Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)ATL 40 – 51 BKN · BKN 71% → 78% +7BKN 71% → 78%+7 pts
- Q21:01Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three pointerATL 47 – 53 BKN · ATL 26% → 33% +7ATL 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q242.2Cameron Johnson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)ATL 47 – 56 BKN · BKN 67% → 74% +7BKN 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q213.0Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three pointerATL 50 – 56 BKN · ATL 25% → 33% +8ATL 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q38:19Dennis Schroder makes 24-foot step back jumpshotATL 56 – 68 BKN · BKN 77% → 83% +7BKN 77% → 83%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -0.5
- BKN 51%
- Fair odds
- BKN -101
- ATL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.8 – 116.8 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −22 | −39 | ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +10 Elo | BKN 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.2 | Points scored | 111.924th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.9 | Points allowed | 114.816th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.7 | Margin | −2.922nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 111.922nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 114.819th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.4 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–16 | Road vs home | 13–1723rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−22 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu injury/illness−6 Elo
Nets
−39 Elo- Cam Thomas injury/illness−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.