Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tobias HarrisPoints28
- Kyle LowryAssists7
- Nicolas BatumRebounds11
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints38
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–116
- Q41.1Mavericks offensive team rebound120–116
- Q41.1P.J. Washington misses driving floating jump shot120–116
- Q43.0P.J. Washington defensive rebound120–116
- Q45.0Kelly Oubre Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2120–116
- Q45.0Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2120–116
- Q45.0Maxi Kleber personal take foul119–116
- Q46.1Kyrie Irving makes 26-foot three pointer119–116
- Q410.1Nicolas Batum makes free throw 2 of 2119–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:06Kyrie Irving makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 58 – 54 DAL · DAL 45% → 54% +9DAL 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q310:41Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)PHI 61 – 54 DAL · PHI 47% → 56% +9PHI 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q310:16Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 64 – 54 DAL · PHI 56% → 65% +9PHI 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q38:24Buddy Hield makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 69 – 59 DAL · PHI 58% → 67% +9PHI 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q37:41Kyle Lowry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)PHI 72 – 59 DAL · PHI 67% → 76% +8PHI 67% → 76%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -7
- DAL 76%
- Fair odds
- DAL -248
- PHI +248 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.3 – 121.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −63 | +40 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +201 Elo | DAL 76.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 71.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 118.87th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 118.023rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +0.815th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 115.422nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.27th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 10th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 18–1318th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.