Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints27
- Vasilije MicicAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds11
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints33
- Kyle LowryAssists10
- Tobias HarrisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–121
- Q417.0Kyle Lowry defensive rebound114–121
- Q421.1Nicolas Batum blocks Davis Bertans 's 26-foot three point shot114–121
- Q423.0Hornets Full timeout114–121
- Q423.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2114–121
- Q423.0Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2114–120
- Q423.0Tre Mann personal take foul114–119
- Q423.1Kyle Lowry defensive rebound114–119
- Q427.1Tyrese Maxey blocks Tre Mann 's 4-foot driving dunk114–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:29Vasilije Micic makes 27-foot three pointerCHA 81 – 79 PHI · CHA 36% → 47% +10CHA 36% → 47%+10 pts
- Q42:42Miles Bridges makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Tre Mann assists)CHA 109 – 112 PHI · CHA 8% → 22% +15CHA 8% → 22%+15 pts
- Q42:14Tobias Harris makes 11-foot two point shotCHA 109 – 114 PHI · PHI 79% → 90% +11PHI 79% → 90%+11 pts
- Q42:00Grant Williams makes 27-foot three point jumperCHA 112 – 114 PHI · CHA 9% → 27% +19CHA 9% → 27%+19 pts
- Q41:24Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)CHA 112 – 117 PHI · PHI 75% → 95% +19PHI 75% → 95%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4.5
- PHI 68%
- Fair odds
- PHI -203
- CHA +203 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 105.8 – 111.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −20 | −46 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +133 Elo | PHI 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.5 | Points scored | 117.013th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 113.714th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.5 | Margin | +3.310th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 115.910th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 112.612th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.5 | Pace | 100.516th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 25th of 307–22 | Road vs home | 18–1317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.