Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Luke KennardPoints25
- Luke KennardAssists7
- Jake LaRaviaRebounds10
Nets- Nic ClaxtonPoints21
- Dennis SchroderAssists9
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–102
- Q46.1Nic Claxton away from play foul106–102
- Q46.1Day'Ron Sharpe enters the game for Dorian Finney-Smith106–102
- Q46.1Nic Claxton enters the game for Dennis Smith Jr.106–102
- Q46.1Luke Kennard makes free throw 1 of 1106–102
- Q46.1Grizzlies defensive team rebound105–102
- Q46.1Mikal Bridges misses free throw 3 of 3105–102
- Q46.1Mikal Bridges makes free throw 2 of 3105–102
- Q46.1Mikal Bridges makes free throw 1 of 3105–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:41Lonnie Walker IV makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)MEM 75 – 75 BKN · BKN 46% → 57% +11BKN 46% → 57%+11 pts
- Q411:46Lonnie Walker IV makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)MEM 80 – 80 BKN · BKN 44% → 56% +13BKN 44% → 56%+13 pts
- Q48:41Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)MEM 88 – 88 BKN · BKN 41% → 56% +15BKN 41% → 56%+15 pts
- Q46:40Lamar Stevens makes two point shotMEM 92 – 88 BKN · MEM 56% → 67% +11MEM 56% → 67%+11 pts
- Q43:38Vince Williams Jr. makes 9-foot two point shotMEM 96 – 90 BKN · MEM 75% → 85% +10MEM 75% → 85%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -6
- BKN 72%
- Fair odds
- BKN -169
- MEM +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 103.2 – 107.2 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1370 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | −25 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +168 Elo | BKN 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.1 | Points scored | 112.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 114.315th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.7 | Margin | −2.121st of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.2 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 114.419th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.3 | Pace | 99.422nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 15–1723rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−25 Elo- Cam Thomas right ankle injury−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.