Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Saddiq BeyPoints23
- Dejounte MurrayAssists11
- Clint CapelaRebounds10
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints38
- Dennis SchroderAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–114
- Q416.2shot clock turnover102–114
- Q441.0Bruno Fernando makes driving layup (Trent Forrest assists)102–114
- Q454.1Trendon Watford makes 2-foot two point shot100–114
- Q41:09Saddiq Bey makes 1-foot dunk100–112
- Q41:09Saddiq Bey offensive rebound98–112
- Q41:10Kobe Bufkin misses 23-foot three point jumper98–112
- Q41:27Hawks defensive team rebound98–112
- Q41:28Bruno Fernando blocks Jalen Wilson 's 6-foot two point shot98–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:03Dennis Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)ATL 56 – 54 BKN · BKN 40% → 49% +8BKN 40% → 49%+8 pts
- Q21:49De'Andre Hunter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 59 – 54 BKN · ATL 52% → 60% +8ATL 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q233.1Mikal Bridges makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)ATL 59 – 59 BKN · BKN 45% → 54% +9BKN 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q212.0Dejounte Murray makes 24-foot three pointerATL 62 – 59 BKN · ATL 46% → 55% +9ATL 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q36:49Dennis Schroder makes 27-foot three pointer (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)ATL 66 – 73 BKN · BKN 66% → 75% +9BKN 66% → 75%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -2.5
- BKN 60%
- Fair odds
- BKN -125
- ATL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.4 – 117.1 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | −27 | ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +74 Elo | BKN 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.7 | Points scored | 112.124th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.9 | Points allowed | 114.516th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.1 | Margin | −2.422nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 114.619th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.3 | Pace | 99.523rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–17 | Road vs home | 14–1723rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−35 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu sprained left big toe−7 Elo
Nets
−27 Elo- Cam Thomas sprained right ankle−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–2 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.