Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints30
- Ashton HagansAssists8
- Jabari WalkerRebounds12
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints21
- Jordan GoodwinAssists8
- Santi AldamaRebounds8
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game107–100
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime107–100
- OT0.0Dalano Banton makes dunk (Kris Murray assists)107–100
- OT6.0Kris Murray defensive rebound105–100
- OT9.1GG Jackson misses 22-foot step back jumpshot105–100
- OT11.1Grizzlies Full timeout105–100
- OT11.1Dalano Banton makes two point shot105–100
- OT11.1Dalano Banton offensive rebound103–100
- OT11.1Jabari Walker misses 12-foot two point shot103–100
- OT12.0Jabari Walker offensive rebound103–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:43Ashton Hagans makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 82 – 87 MEM · POR 9% → 20% +11POR 9% → 20%+11 pts
- Q444.2Jabari Walker makes two point shotPOR 93 – 95 MEM · POR 5% → 20% +15POR 5% → 20%+15 pts
- Q41.1Jabari Walker makes free throw 2 of 2POR 95 – 95 MEM · POR <1% → 50% +50POR <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:06Anfernee Simons makes 14-foot pullup jump shotPOR 97 – 95 MEM · POR 49% → 65% +16POR 49% → 65%+16 pts
- OT2:25Dalano Banton makes 1-foot two point shot (Jabari Walker assists)POR 99 – 97 MEM · POR 49% → 67% +18POR 49% → 67%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -0.5
- MEM 49%
- Fair odds
- MEM -114
- POR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 105.6 – 106.6 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MEM and POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −37 | −68 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Jaren Jackson Jr. −24 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +8 Elo | POR 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30107.5 | Points scored | 106.230th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 112.99th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.4 | Margin | −6.725th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 105.530th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 112.211th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.5 | Pace | 100.318th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–22 | Road vs home | 7–2327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−68 Elo- Jaren Jackson Jr. right quad−24 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 2–1 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.