Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints26
- Jalen JohnsonAssists7
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds9
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints21
- Miles McBrideAssists9
- Jericho SimsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–100
- Q413.1Clint Capela defensive rebound116–100
- Q415.1Miles McBride misses 27-foot three point jumper116–100
- Q423.1Jalen Johnson personal foul116–100
- Q431.0Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 1116–100
- Q431.0Bojan Bogdanovic shooting foul115–100
- Q431.0Saddiq Bey makes driving dunk (Jalen Johnson assists)115–100
- Q443.1Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three pointer (Miles McBride assists)113–100
- Q451.1Clint Capela makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jalen Johnson assists)113–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:08De'Andre Hunter makes 20-foot jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)ATL 37 – 15 NY · ATL 75% → 86% +11ATL 75% → 86%+11 pts
- Q316.1Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trent Forrest assists)ATL 83 – 78 NY · ATL 53% → 65% +12ATL 53% → 65%+12 pts
- Q47:14Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)ATL 93 – 88 NY · NY 17% → 29% +12NY 17% → 29%+12 pts
- Q46:27Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)ATL 95 – 91 NY · NY 19% → 32% +13NY 19% → 32%+13 pts
- Q46:02Dejounte Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)ATL 98 – 91 NY · ATL 69% → 82% +14ATL 69% → 82%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5
- NY 69%
- Fair odds
- NY -156
- ATL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 113.0 – 116.4 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | −89 | ATL: Missing Kobe Bufkin −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · NY: Missing Jalen Brunson −50 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +139 Elo | NY 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 113.419th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.7 | Points allowed | 109.74th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.3 | Margin | +3.79th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 115.711th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 111.910th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 98.129th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 20–1110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−43 Elo- Kobe Bufkin left toe−1 Elo
Knicks
−89 Elo- Jalen Brunson left knee contusion−50 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–2 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.