New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Donte DiVincenzoPoints28
- Josh HartAssists10
- Josh HartRebounds19
Cavaliers- Sam MerrillPoints21
- Jarrett AllenAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–98
- Q41.1shot clock turnover107–98
- Q423.1Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound107–98
- Q425.1Darius Garland misses driving layup107–98
- Q433.0Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)107–98
- Q444.0Darius Garland personal foul104–98
- Q446.1Dean Wade enters the game for Sam Merrill104–98
- Q446.1Knicks Full timeout104–98
- Q456.1Knicks defensive team rebound104–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:55Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three pointer (Isaac Okoro assists)NY 92 – 88 CLE · CLE 18% → 31% +13CLE 18% → 31%+13 pts
- Q46:38Bojan Bogdanovic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 95 – 88 CLE · NY 69% → 82% +13NY 69% → 82%+13 pts
- Q44:40Darius Garland makes 24-foot three pointerNY 99 – 96 CLE · CLE 17% → 33% +16CLE 17% → 33%+16 pts
- Q41:59Evan Mobley makes dunkNY 101 – 98 CLE · CLE 11% → 23% +12CLE 11% → 23%+12 pts
- Q41:36Josh Hart makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Bojan Bogdanovic assists)NY 104 – 98 CLE · NY 80% → 95% +16NY 80% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2.5
- CLE 59%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- NY +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 106.1 – 108.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −4 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +63 Elo | CLE 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 114.615th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 109.62nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +5.14th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 114.315th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 109.22nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.2 | Pace | 99.522nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 15th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 19–1010th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.