Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints29
- Evan MobleyAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds17
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–100
- Q47.2Cavaliers defensive team rebound110–100
- Q48.1Ausar Thompson misses 26-foot three point jumper110–100
- Q414.0Ausar Thompson defensive rebound110–100
- Q418.1Darius Garland misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot110–100
- Q432.0Evan Mobley offensive rebound110–100
- Q433.1Evan Mobley misses free throw 2 of 2110–100
- Q433.1Evan Mobley makes free throw 1 of 2110–100
- Q433.1Cade Cunningham personal foul109–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:16Max Strus makes 22-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 6 – 0 DET · CLE 73% → 78% +5CLE 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q18:51Isaiah Stewart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)CLE 11 – 3 DET · DET 15% → 19% +4DET 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q17:50Max Strus makes 22-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 14 – 7 DET · CLE 74% → 79% +5CLE 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q15:37Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 17 – 14 DET · CLE 67% → 72% +6CLE 67% → 72%+6 pts
- Q211:04Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 35 – 24 DET · CLE 81% → 86% +5CLE 81% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6.5
- CLE 74%
- Fair odds
- CLE -210
- DET +210 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 116.2 – 110.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −8 | CLE: Missing Donovan Mitchell −70, Caris LeVert −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone and DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +185 Elo | CLE 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 112.722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 121.327th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.0 | Margin | −8.727th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 109.725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 118.127th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.5 | Pace | 102.19th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3018–10 | Road vs home | 4–2429th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−4 Elo- Donovan Mitchell sore left knee−70 Elo
- Caris LeVert sprained right elbow−6 Elo
Pistons
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.