Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints18
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds19
Hawks- Saddiq BeyPoints23
- Dejounte MurrayAssists9
- Bruno FernandoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–112
- Q48.1Bogdan Bogdanovic bad pass (Georges Niang steals)101–112
- Q427.1Saddiq Bey defensive rebound101–112
- Q430.1Darius Garland misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot101–112
- Q436.1De'Andre Hunter makes 3-foot two point shot (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)101–112
- Q447.1Darius Garland bad pass (Bogdan Bogdanovic steals)101–110
- Q456.0Dejounte Murray out of bounds lost ball turnover101–110
- Q41:10Clint Capela defensive rebound101–110
- Q41:13Caris LeVert misses two point shot101–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q324.1Caris LeVert makes 23-foot three pointer (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 89 – 87 ATL · CLE 51% → 63% +12CLE 51% → 63%+12 pts
- Q45:05Saddiq Bey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)CLE 93 – 100 ATL · ATL 71% → 85% +14ATL 71% → 85%+14 pts
- Q43:33Georges Niang makes 1-foot layup (Darius Garland assists)CLE 99 – 102 ATL · CLE 19% → 31% +12CLE 19% → 31%+12 pts
- Q43:13Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)CLE 99 – 105 ATL · ATL 70% → 87% +17ATL 70% → 87%+17 pts
- Q42:10Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)CLE 101 – 108 ATL · ATL 82% → 95% +13ATL 82% → 95%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4.5
- CLE 68%
- Fair odds
- CLE -154
- ATL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 117.1 – 113.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | ATL and CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −20 | −35 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Kobe Bufkin −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +129 Elo | CLE 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 120.45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 122.429th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.8 | Margin | −2.021st of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 116.010th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 117.927th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.3 | Pace | 103.14th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3019–10 | Road vs home | 15–1622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−35 Elo- Kobe Bufkin left toe−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 3–0 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.