Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints26
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Jayson TatumRebounds13
Cavaliers- Dean WadePoints23
- Darius GarlandAssists11
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–105
- Q40.0Kristaps Porzingis vs. Jarrett Allen (Derrick White gains possession)104–105
- Q40.7(00:00.7) [Cavaliers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Cavaliers] retain their timeout104–105
- Q41.7Jayson Tatum misses 16-foot two point shot104–105
- Q419.0Dean Wade makes dunk104–105
- Q419.0Dean Wade offensive rebound104–103
- Q419.0Darius Garland misses driving layup104–103
- Q436.1Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 1 of 1104–103
- Q436.1Darius Garland shooting foul103–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:19Georges Niang makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)BOS 99 – 99 CLE · CLE 25% → 46% +22CLE 25% → 46%+22 pts
- Q42:34Dean Wade makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)BOS 99 – 102 CLE · CLE 47% → 72% +26CLE 47% → 72%+26 pts
- Q436.1Kristaps Porzingis makes two point shot (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 103 – 103 CLE · BOS 19% → 52% +33BOS 19% → 52%+33 pts
- Q436.1Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 1 of 1BOS 104 – 103 CLE · BOS 52% → 69% +18BOS 52% → 69%+18 pts
- Q419.0Dean Wade makes dunkBOS 104 – 105 CLE · CLE 25% → 73% +48CLE 25% → 73%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5.5
- BOS 71%
- Fair odds
- BOS -176
- CLE +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 113.8 – 109.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1707 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +72 | +3 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +154 Elo | BOS 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.3 | Points scored | 114.318th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 109.52nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.4 | Margin | +4.84th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.6 | Offense rating | 114.216th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 109.43rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.7 | Pace | 99.322nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3019–9 | Road vs home | 19–1111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+72 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.