LA Clippers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints28
- Bones HylandAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds8
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints21
- Alex CarusoAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–111
- Q421.1shot clock turnover126–111
- Q443.1Henri Drell makes tip shot126–111
- Q443.1Henri Drell offensive rebound126–109
- Q445.1Terry Taylor misses two point shot126–109
- Q450.1Dalen Terry defensive rebound126–109
- Q452.1Mason Plumlee misses 8-foot two point shot126–109
- Q41:08Dalen Terry makes driving layup (Henri Drell assists)126–109
- Q41:25Andrew Funk enters the game for Jevon Carter126–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:37Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 21 – 14 CHI · LAC 59% → 66% +6LAC 59% → 66%+6 pts
- Q25:59Jevon Carter makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)LAC 53 – 45 CHI · CHI 23% → 30% +6CHI 23% → 30%+6 pts
- Q25:38Bones Hyland makes 24-foot three pointer (Paul George assists)LAC 56 – 45 CHI · LAC 71% → 77% +6LAC 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q49:13DeMar DeRozan makes 24-foot three pointerLAC 98 – 90 CHI · CHI 9% → 17% +7CHI 9% → 17%+7 pts
- Q48:57Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)LAC 101 – 90 CHI · LAC 83% → 91% +7LAC 83% → 91%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 55%
- Fair odds
- LAC -102
- CHI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.2 – 113.0 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −38 | −19 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +37 Elo | LAC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 50.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 111.824th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 113.714th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.2 | Margin | −1.820th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 114.118th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.4 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 16–1620th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.