Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints46
- Alex CarusoAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints27
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists14
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game132–129
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime132–129
- OT0.1DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound132–129
- OT0.1Tyrese Haliburton misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot132–129
- OT9.0Myles Turner defensive rebound132–129
- OT10.1DeMar DeRozan misses free throw 2 of 2132–129
- OT10.1Myles Turner enters the game for T.J. McConnell132–129
- OT10.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2132–129
- OT10.1Tyrese Haliburton personal take foul131–129
- OT11.1Pascal Siakam personal take foul131–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:21Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)CHI 112 – 112 IND · IND 19% → 52% +33IND 19% → 52%+33 pts
- Q456.1Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)CHI 112 – 115 IND · IND 51% → 88% +36IND 51% → 88%+36 pts
- Q40.1DeMar DeRozan makes 19-foot two point shot (Alex Caruso assists)CHI 117 – 117 IND · CHI 0% → 50% +50CHI 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:46Myles Turner makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)CHI 122 – 123 IND · IND 35% → 61% +25IND 35% → 61%+25 pts
- OT2:17DeMar DeRozan makes 25-foot three pointerCHI 125 – 123 IND · CHI 39% → 67% +28CHI 39% → 67%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 65%
- Fair odds
- IND -144
- CHI +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 115.8 – 118.6 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | +31 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | CHI crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +109 Elo | IND 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 59.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 122.91st of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 121.328th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 118.13rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 116.625th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 104.12nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 20–1312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.