Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–111
- Q49.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes driving layup121–111
- Q414.1Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 2121–109
- Q414.1Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 1 of 2120–109
- Q414.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul119–109
- Q415.0Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound119–109
- Q418.0Chet Holmgren misses 25-foot three point jumper119–109
- Q426.0Pascal Siakam makes free throw 2 of 2119–109
- Q426.0Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 2118–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:56Luguentz Dort makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)IND 82 – 82 OKC · OKC 43% → 54% +11OKC 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q32:05Isaiah Joe makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)IND 84 – 85 OKC · OKC 46% → 58% +11OKC 46% → 58%+11 pts
- Q48:34Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)IND 99 – 98 OKC · OKC 34% → 48% +14OKC 34% → 48%+14 pts
- Q48:11Jalen Smith makes driving layupIND 101 – 98 OKC · IND 52% → 62% +10IND 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q45:04Andrew Nembhard makes 28-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 108 – 99 OKC · IND 82% → 92% +10IND 82% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 59%
- Fair odds
- OKC -135
- IND +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 119.6 – 121.8 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1586 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −5 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +66 Elo | OKC 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 57.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.9 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 112.913th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +8.02nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 118.32nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 110.55th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.1 | Pace | 101.412th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 26–63rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.