Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints37
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds14
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints29
- Anfernee SimonsAssists5
- Matisse ThybulleRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–120
- Q413.2Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot step back jumpshot128–120
- Q426.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2128–117
- Q426.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2127–117
- Q426.1Rayan Rupert enters the game for Kris Murray126–117
- Q426.1Kris Murray personal foul126–117
- Q429.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound126–117
- Q431.2Anfernee Simons misses 26-foot step back jumpshot126–117
- Q438.0Trail Blazers Full timeout126–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:12Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three pointer (Duop Reath assists)OKC 88 – 84 POR · POR 18% → 27% +8POR 18% → 27%+8 pts
- Q348.0Gordon Hayward makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotOKC 93 – 86 POR · OKC 74% → 83% +9OKC 74% → 83%+9 pts
- Q44:05Matisse Thybulle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)OKC 112 – 110 POR · POR 15% → 31% +16POR 15% → 31%+16 pts
- Q43:29Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 116 – 110 POR · OKC 76% → 90% +14OKC 76% → 90%+14 pts
- Q42:33Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 119 – 113 POR · OKC 84% → 93% +8OKC 84% → 93%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6.5
- OKC 74%
- Fair odds
- OKC -206
- POR +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.2 – 110.7 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1396 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −20 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +179 Elo | OKC 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.9 | Points scored | 107.628th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 115.717th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.6 | Margin | −8.127th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 106.829th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 114.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.5 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 9–2025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 3–0 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.