Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints34
- Anfernee SimonsAssists14
- Jabari WalkerRebounds8
Timberwolves- Rudy GobertPoints25
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–119
- Q41.1Dalano Banton makes free throw 1 of 1114–119
- Q41.1Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Rudy Gobert113–119
- Q41.1Rudy Gobert shooting foul113–119
- Q41.1Dalano Banton makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot113–119
- Q46.1Mike Conley makes free throw 2 of 2111–119
- Q46.1Mike Conley makes free throw 1 of 2111–118
- Q46.1Jabari Walker personal take foul111–117
- Q47.2Dalano Banton makes two point shot111–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:19Justin Minaya makes 26-foot three point shot (Ashton Hagans assists)POR 30 – 28 MIN · POR 30% → 36% +7POR 30% → 36%+7 pts
- Q311:09Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)POR 53 – 55 MIN · POR 22% → 30% +7POR 22% → 30%+7 pts
- Q32:46Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three pointerPOR 77 – 81 MIN · POR 17% → 25% +8POR 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q31:50Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ashton Hagans assists)POR 80 – 83 MIN · POR 19% → 28% +9POR 19% → 28%+9 pts
- Q31:02Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Monte Morris assists)POR 80 – 86 MIN · MIN 72% → 81% +9MIN 72% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8.5
- MIN 80%
- Fair odds
- MIN -244
- POR +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 102.6 – 109.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −9 | +28 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +244 Elo | MIN 80.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30107.5 | Points scored | 113.220th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 106.31st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.1 | Margin | +6.93rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 113.517th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 106.51st of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.5 | Pace | 99.226th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–22 | Road vs home | 22–86th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–3 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.