Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints20
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists4
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderRebounds7
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints26
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–116
- Q49.1shot clock turnover104–116
- Q433.1Olivier Sarr makes free throw 2 of 2104–116
- Q433.1Thunder offensive team rebound103–116
- Q433.1Olivier Sarr misses free throw 1 of 2103–116
- Q433.1Maxwell Lewis shooting foul103–116
- Q442.1Lindy Waters III defensive rebound103–116
- Q445.1Jalen Hood-Schifino misses 6-foot two point shot103–116
- Q41:03Lindy Waters III makes 25-foot three point jumper103–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:19Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 55 – 59 LAL · OKC 25% → 33% +8OKC 25% → 33%+8 pts
- Q38:11D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)OKC 57 – 62 LAL · LAL 61% → 70% +9LAL 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q37:58Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 60 – 62 LAL · OKC 30% → 39% +9OKC 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q37:41Austin Reaves makes 24-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)OKC 60 – 65 LAL · LAL 61% → 70% +9LAL 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q36:03LeBron James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)OKC 64 – 70 LAL · LAL 64% → 73% +9LAL 64% → 73%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- LAL 55%
- Fair odds
- LAL -135
- OKC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.6 – 121.9 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +39 | +28 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +32 Elo | LAL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.2 | Points scored | 117.210th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 117.520th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.9 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.3 | Offense rating | 113.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 113.616th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.65th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 21–108th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–2 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.