Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Suns- Bradley BealPoints31
- Bradley BealAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds31
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–110
- Q422.1Jalen Williams defensive rebound118–110
- Q426.0Grayson Allen misses 28-foot three point jumper118–110
- Q428.1Royce O'Neale enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic118–110
- Q428.1Suns Full timeout118–110
- Q428.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2118–110
- Q428.1Thunder offensive team rebound117–110
- Q428.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses free throw 1 of 2117–110
- Q428.1Grayson Allen personal take foul117–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:55Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)OKC 89 – 91 PHX · PHX 39% → 52% +13PHX 39% → 52%+13 pts
- Q410:19Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Eric Gordon assists)OKC 90 – 94 PHX · PHX 48% → 61% +13PHX 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q47:56Saben Lee makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)OKC 96 – 101 PHX · PHX 54% → 69% +15PHX 54% → 69%+15 pts
- Q46:51Cason Wallace makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 101 – 101 PHX · OKC 39% → 55% +16OKC 39% → 55%+16 pts
- Q45:29Jalen Williams makes driving layupOKC 105 – 103 PHX · OKC 55% → 67% +12OKC 55% → 67%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 64%
- Fair odds
- OKC -176
- PHX +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 119.5 – 115.2 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +37 | −25 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +96 Elo | OKC 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 63.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.2 | Points scored | 117.212th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 114.416th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.9 | Margin | +2.911th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 115.710th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 112.913th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.715th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 20–1212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.