Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Jamal MurrayAssists11
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints26
- Austin ReavesAssists14
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–114
- Q415.1Justin Holiday defensive rebound124–114
- Q419.0Austin Reaves misses 22-foot three point jumper124–114
- Q431.1Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 1124–114
- Q431.1LeBron James shooting foul123–114
- Q431.1Aaron Gordon makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Nikola Jokic assists)123–114
- Q453.2LeBron James makes driving layup121–114
- Q41:01Nikola Jokic makes layup (Michael Porter Jr. assists)121–112
- Q41:03Aaron Gordon offensive rebound119–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:34LeBron James makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotDEN 99 – 101 LAL · LAL 47% → 62% +15LAL 47% → 62%+15 pts
- Q46:53Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DEN 101 – 104 LAL · LAL 52% → 68% +16LAL 52% → 68%+16 pts
- Q44:29Justin Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 108 – 108 LAL · DEN 29% → 48% +19DEN 29% → 48%+19 pts
- Q43:49Aaron Gordon makes 24-foot three pointer (Justin Holiday assists)DEN 111 – 110 LAL · DEN 34% → 56% +22DEN 34% → 56%+22 pts
- Q43:05Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot two point shotDEN 113 – 110 LAL · DEN 57% → 72% +15DEN 57% → 72%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- LAL 55%
- Fair odds
- LAL -125
- DEN +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 113.8 – 115.5 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | +28 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +33 Elo | LAL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 117.312th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 117.420th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 113.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.5 | Pace | 102.75th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 21–98th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.