Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- GG JacksonPoints30
- DeJon JarreauAssists5
- DeJon JarreauRebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints23
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Josh GiddeyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–124
- Q49.1GG Jackson out of bounds lost ball turnover93–124
- Q429.1Lindy Waters III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Muscala assists)93–124
- Q446.0DeJon Jarreau makes two point shot93–121
- Q449.1Lindy Waters III bad pass (DeJon Jarreau steals)91–121
- Q457.1Lindy Waters III defensive rebound91–121
- Q41:02DeJon Jarreau misses two point shot91–121
- Q41:09DeJon Jarreau defensive rebound91–121
- Q41:11Mike Muscala misses 24-foot three point shot91–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:32Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)MEM 0 – 6 OKC · OKC 76% → 81% +5OKC 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q19:29Jake LaRavia makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMEM 3 – 6 OKC · MEM 19% → 24% +5MEM 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q18:08Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)MEM 3 – 13 OKC · OKC 82% → 86% +4OKC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q17:09Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)MEM 5 – 16 OKC · OKC 84% → 87% +4OKC 84% → 87%+4 pts
- Q16:49Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (GG Jackson assists)MEM 8 – 16 OKC · MEM 13% → 16% +4MEM 13% → 16%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -9
- OKC 81%
- Fair odds
- OKC -252
- MEM +252 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 106.5 – 113.5 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +22 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +248 Elo | OKC 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 113.212th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.3 | Margin | +7.62nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.4 | Offense rating | 118.22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 110.86th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.0 | Pace | 101.411th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 25–63rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 OKC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.