Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points25
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints37
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Josh GiddeyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–107
- Q415.0Chet Holmgren defensive rebound100–107
- Q419.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander blocks Terry Rozier 's 23-foot step back jumpshot100–107
- Q423.0Chet Holmgren kicked ball violation100–107
- Q423.0Patty Mills enters the game for Caleb Martin100–107
- Q423.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.100–107
- Q423.0Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Jaylin Williams100–107
- Q423.0Heat Full timeout100–107
- Q423.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2100–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:01Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)MIA 65 – 68 OKC · OKC 56% → 66% +10OKC 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q31:55Isaiah Joe makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Luguentz Dort assists)MIA 69 – 73 OKC · OKC 59% → 70% +11OKC 59% → 70%+11 pts
- Q411:43Aaron Wiggins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)MIA 73 – 80 OKC · OKC 71% → 81% +10OKC 71% → 81%+10 pts
- Q46:58Aaron Wiggins makes 1-foot driving dunk (Chet Holmgren assists)MIA 86 – 89 OKC · OKC 59% → 69% +10OKC 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q43:22Terry Rozier makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 91 – 95 OKC · MIA 7% → 20% +12MIA 7% → 20%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 60%
- Fair odds
- OKC -152
- MIA +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 109.6 – 112.8 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +19 | +19 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | OKC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +73 Elo | OKC 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 60.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.7 | Points scored | 121.02nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 113.413th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +7.62nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 118.32nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 110.87th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 101.511th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 24–63rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 OKC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.