Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints26
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–118
- Q44.0Caleb Martin defensive rebound110–118
- Q47.0Evan Fournier misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot110–118
- Q412.1Jimmy Butler makes free throw 2 of 2110–118
- Q412.1Jimmy Butler makes free throw 1 of 2110–117
- Q412.1Isaiah Stewart personal take foul110–116
- Q414.0Simone Fontecchio personal take foul110–116
- Q416.1Cade Cunningham makes 11-foot pullup jump shot110–116
- Q421.1Evan Fournier enters the game for Ausar Thompson108–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:11Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 65 – 61 MIA · DET 33% → 41% +8DET 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q43:22Jaden Ivey makes 8-foot jumperDET 103 – 106 MIA · DET 12% → 22% +10DET 12% → 22%+10 pts
- Q42:28Terry Rozier makes driving layupDET 105 – 108 MIA · MIA 66% → 80% +15MIA 66% → 80%+15 pts
- Q42:06Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)DET 105 – 111 MIA · MIA 82% → 95% +13MIA 82% → 95%+13 pts
- Q41:15Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 108 – 111 MIA · DET 2% → 14% +12DET 2% → 14%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -9
- MIA 82%
- Fair odds
- MIA -339
- DET +339 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 105.3 – 114.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +19 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Kevin Love −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +259 Elo | MIA 81.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 77.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.1 | Points scored | 110.627th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 109.96th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | +0.715th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 111.68th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.0 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–26 | Road vs home | 16–1319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+19 Elo- Kevin Love right heel bruise−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.