Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Evan FournierPoints17
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds6
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints29
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–113
- Q415.1shot clock turnover91–113
- Q440.1Simone Fontecchio makes driving dunk (Marcus Sasser assists)91–113
- Q449.1Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound89–113
- Q453.1Goga Bitadze misses free throw 2 of 289–113
- Q453.1Goga Bitadze makes free throw 1 of 289–113
- Q453.1Simone Fontecchio personal foul89–112
- Q41:01Caleb Houstan defensive rebound89–112
- Q41:05Marcus Sasser misses 25-foot step back jumpshot89–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:54Gary Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)DET 8 – 12 ORL · ORL 75% → 80% +5ORL 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q12:32Isaiah Stewart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 25 – 25 ORL · DET 22% → 28% +6DET 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q28:54Evan Fournier makes 24-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)DET 36 – 37 ORL · DET 21% → 27% +6DET 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q24:27Cade Cunningham makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 44 – 48 ORL · DET 16% → 22% +5DET 16% → 22%+5 pts
- Q22:43Wendell Carter Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumperDET 46 – 54 ORL · ORL 80% → 85% +5ORL 80% → 85%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -7.5
- ORL 77%
- Fair odds
- ORL -293
- DET +293 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 106.9 – 115.0 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1371 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | −4 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +212 Elo | ORL 77.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.5 | Points scored | 111.526th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 110.26th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +1.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 111.623rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.0 | Defense rating | 110.34th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.1 | Pace | 99.325th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–25 | Road vs home | 20–75th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–3 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.