Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Terry RozierPoints27
- Terry RozierAssists11
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints35
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–114
- Q40.2Luka Doncic defensive rebound108–114
- Q41.1Duncan Robinson misses 22-foot three point jumper108–114
- Q48.0Heat Full timeout108–114
- Q48.0Bam Adebayo defensive rebound108–114
- Q49.1P.J. Washington misses free throw 2 of 2108–114
- Q49.1P.J. Washington makes free throw 1 of 2108–114
- Q49.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. enters the game for Caleb Martin108–113
- Q49.1Caleb Martin shooting foul108–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:31Luka Doncic makes 24-foot three point shot (Kyrie Irving assists)MIA 97 – 98 DAL · DAL 40% → 56% +17DAL 40% → 56%+17 pts
- Q43:15Dante Exum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)MIA 101 – 103 DAL · DAL 43% → 66% +23DAL 43% → 66%+23 pts
- Q42:27Luka Doncic makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIA 101 – 106 DAL · DAL 68% → 88% +20DAL 68% → 88%+20 pts
- Q42:12Terry Rozier makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIA 104 – 106 DAL · MIA 11% → 31% +20MIA 11% → 31%+20 pts
- Q41:28Kyrie Irving makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dereck Lively II assists)MIA 104 – 109 DAL · DAL 73% → 93% +21DAL 73% → 93%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- DAL 48%
- Fair odds
- DAL -110
- MIA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.7 – 113.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | +32 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +17 Elo | MIA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 52.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 118.76th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 118.324th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.416th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 116.26th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 115.822nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 102.27th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 18–1519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.