Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints20
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Pascal SiakamRebounds13
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints39
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–120
- Q418.1Ben Sheppard defensive rebound137–120
- Q421.0Jaden Hardy misses 12-foot two point shot137–120
- Q430.1shot clock turnover137–120
- Q454.1Jaden Hardy makes free throw 2 of 2137–120
- Q454.1Kendall Brown enters the game for Aaron Nesmith137–119
- Q454.1Jarace Walker enters the game for Pascal Siakam137–119
- Q454.1Jaden Hardy makes free throw 1 of 2137–119
- Q454.1Ben Sheppard personal take foul137–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:46Luka Doncic makes 31-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)IND 56 – 55 DAL · DAL 48% → 55% +8DAL 48% → 55%+8 pts
- Q24:05Bennedict Mathurin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)IND 63 – 57 DAL · IND 50% → 58% +8IND 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q23:15Andrew Nembhard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 66 – 61 DAL · IND 48% → 56% +8IND 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q243.1P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)IND 74 – 68 DAL · DAL 32% → 40% +8DAL 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q310:11Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 79 – 70 DAL · IND 61% → 70% +8IND 61% → 70%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3
- DAL 62%
- Fair odds
- DAL -151
- IND +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 121.3 – 124.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +33 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +83 Elo | DAL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.0 | Points scored | 118.76th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.0 | Points allowed | 118.024th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.716th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 115.522nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.2 | Pace | 102.28th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 18–1419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.