Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints20
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Obi ToppinRebounds8
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints19
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–97
- Q415.0shot clock turnover111–97
- Q434.1Pascal Siakam defensive rebound111–97
- Q438.1Myles Turner blocks Wendell Carter Jr. 's 4-foot two point shot111–97
- Q440.0Wendell Carter Jr. offensive rebound111–97
- Q443.0Jonathan Isaac misses 24-foot three point jumper111–97
- Q444.1Cole Anthony offensive rebound111–97
- Q450.0Paolo Banchero misses 28-foot step back jumpshot111–97
- Q41:01Pascal Siakam makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)111–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:30Paolo Banchero makes 29-foot three pointerIND 40 – 46 ORL · ORL 64% → 72% +8ORL 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q311:47Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 50 – 50 ORL · IND 36% → 44% +9IND 36% → 44%+9 pts
- Q39:34Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 57 – 55 ORL · IND 42% → 51% +9IND 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q38:27Myles Turner makes 28-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 63 – 57 ORL · IND 54% → 64% +9IND 54% → 64%+9 pts
- Q34:47Tyrese Haliburton makes two point shotIND 69 – 63 ORL · IND 59% → 66% +7IND 59% → 66%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2
- ORL 57%
- Fair odds
- ORL -137
- IND +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 112.1 – 114.5 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | +8 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +49 Elo | ORL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 110.926th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.8 | Points allowed | 109.43rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 111.423rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 109.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.2 | Pace | 98.926th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 21–75th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 0–2 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.