Orlando Magic at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints23
- Cole AnthonyAssists5
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists6
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game74–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter74–98
- Q46.2shot clock turnover74–98
- Q430.2Goga Bitadze turnover74–98
- Q430.2Goga Bitadze offensive foul74–98
- Q437.1Magic offensive team rebound74–98
- Q440.0Chuma Okeke misses 24-foot three point jumper74–98
- Q454.0Miles McBride makes 17-foot pullup jump shot74–98
- Q41:13Caleb Houstan makes free throw 2 of 274–96
- Q41:13Shake Milton enters the game for Precious Achiuwa73–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:32Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three point shot (Gary Harris assists)ORL 15 – 21 NY · ORL 35% → 42% +6ORL 35% → 42%+6 pts
- Q12:47Miles McBride makes 25-foot three pointer (Josh Hart assists)ORL 17 – 26 NY · NY 58% → 65% +7NY 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q11:06Miles McBride makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)ORL 21 – 29 NY · NY 57% → 63% +7NY 57% → 63%+7 pts
- Q211:45Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)ORL 23 – 34 NY · NY 64% → 70% +7NY 64% → 70%+7 pts
- Q23:16Jalen Brunson makes 24-foot three pointerORL 39 – 49 NY · NY 64% → 72% +7NY 64% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 56%
- Fair odds
- ORL -127
- NY +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 105.1 – 103.3 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −43 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +41 Elo | ORL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 113.220th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 109.84th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +3.49th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 115.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 112.011th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.1 | Pace | 98.129th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 20–1211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 3–0 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.