Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints22
- Joe InglesAssists8
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds9
Hornets- Vasilije MicicPoints21
- Vasilije MicicAssists4
- Tre MannRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–89
- Q417.1shot clock turnover101–89
- Q441.1Magic defensive team rebound101–89
- Q442.0Brandon Miller misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot101–89
- Q446.1Admiral Schofield enters the game for Wendell Carter Jr.101–89
- Q446.1Chuma Okeke enters the game for Franz Wagner101–89
- Q446.1Caleb Houstan enters the game for Paolo Banchero101–89
- Q446.1Hornets Full timeout101–89
- Q447.1Paolo Banchero makes 16-foot pullup jump shot101–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:05Paolo Banchero makes 29-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 53 – 53 CHA · ORL 51% → 60% +10ORL 51% → 60%+10 pts
- Q32:46Davis Bertans makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)ORL 64 – 62 CHA · CHA 24% → 34% +10CHA 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q32:20Anthony Black makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)ORL 67 – 62 CHA · ORL 66% → 76% +10ORL 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q31:54Davis Bertans makes 29-foot three pointerORL 67 – 65 CHA · CHA 24% → 34% +10CHA 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q31:38Paolo Banchero makes 28-foot three pointerORL 70 – 65 CHA · ORL 66% → 76% +10ORL 66% → 76%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6
- ORL 73%
- Fair odds
- ORL -193
- CHA +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 106.7 – 101.7 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1367 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | −16 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +174 Elo | ORL 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 65.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 107.629th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 118.023rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −10.430th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 107.828th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 118.229th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.3 | Pace | 99.422nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 8–2226th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.