Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints26
- Vasilije MicicAssists6
- Grant WilliamsRebounds13
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints23
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists11
- Ochai AgbajiRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–111
- Q41.0Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound106–111
- Q41.0Grant Williams misses 26-foot step back jumpshot106–111
- Q44.0Gary Trent Jr. makes two point shot106–111
- Q47.1Vasilije Micic lost ball turnover (Gary Trent Jr. steals)106–109
- Q416.1Gary Trent Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2106–109
- Q416.1Raptors offensive team rebound106–108
- Q416.1Gary Trent Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2106–108
- Q416.1Davis Bertans personal foul106–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:25Grant Williams makes two point shotCHA 100 – 102 TOR · CHA 11% → 27% +16CHA 11% → 27%+16 pts
- Q41:06Davis Bertans makes 25-foot three point shot (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 103 – 102 TOR · CHA 24% → 63% +39CHA 24% → 63%+39 pts
- Q457.2Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 1 of 2CHA 103 – 103 TOR · TOR 36% → 51% +14TOR 36% → 51%+14 pts
- Q457.2Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2CHA 103 – 104 TOR · TOR 51% → 65% +14TOR 51% → 65%+14 pts
- Q424.1Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 1 of 2CHA 103 – 105 TOR · TOR 72% → 87% +16TOR 72% → 87%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2
- TOR 59%
- Fair odds
- TOR -117
- CHA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.6 – 111.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1373 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | −42 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +60 Elo | TOR 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.6 | Points scored | 114.518th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 117.821st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−10.5 | Margin | −3.424th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 115.923rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.3 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–23 | Road vs home | 12–1824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.