Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints28
- Paolo BancheroAssists10
- Goga BitadzeRebounds8
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints26
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Deni AvdijaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–109
- Q423.0Kyle Kuzma makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot119–109
- Q430.1Franz Wagner makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot119–107
- Q448.2Deni Avdija makes 1-foot two point shot (Jordan Poole assists)117–107
- Q455.1Anthony Black makes driving dunk (Franz Wagner assists)117–105
- Q41:03Kyle Kuzma makes free throw 1 of 1115–105
- Q41:03Franz Wagner shooting foul115–104
- Q41:03Kyle Kuzma makes driving layup (Corey Kispert assists)115–104
- Q41:06Markelle Fultz enters the game for Moritz Wagner115–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q340.0Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three pointerORL 84 – 83 WSH · ORL 55% → 66% +12ORL 55% → 66%+12 pts
- Q410:07Franz Wagner makes 24-foot step back jumpshotORL 89 – 89 WSH · ORL 48% → 61% +13ORL 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q48:31Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three pointer (Richaun Holmes assists)ORL 93 – 96 WSH · WSH 40% → 54% +15WSH 40% → 54%+15 pts
- Q46:52Jalen Suggs makes three pointerORL 96 – 96 WSH · ORL 43% → 59% +16ORL 43% → 59%+16 pts
- Q44:30Cole Anthony makes 10-foot two point shotORL 100 – 97 WSH · ORL 64% → 76% +12ORL 64% → 76%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -8.5
- ORL 80%
- Fair odds
- ORL -275
- WSH +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 116.2 – 108.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1329 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | −65 | ORL: Missing Wendell Carter Jr. −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | WSH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +240 Elo | ORL 79.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 73.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 114.615th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 124.730th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −10.029th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 108.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 118.530th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.1 | Pace | 105.01st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 17th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 3–2530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−2 Elo- Wendell Carter Jr. right knee soreness−7 Elo
Wizards
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 3–0 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.