Minnesota Timberwolves at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints44
- Jaden McDanielsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Myles TurnerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–111
- Q41.1Mike Conley defensive rebound113–111
- Q41.1Anthony Edwards blocks Aaron Nesmith 's 2-foot two point shot113–111
- Q46.1Myles Turner defensive rebound113–111
- Q47.0Anthony Edwards misses free throw 2 of 2113–111
- Q47.0Rudy Gobert enters the game for Naz Reid113–111
- Q47.0Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2113–111
- Q47.0Pascal Siakam personal take foul112–111
- Q416.1Mike Conley enters the game for Rudy Gobert112–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:18Anthony Edwards makes driving layupMIN 103 – 102 IND · MIN 40% → 59% +19MIN 40% → 59%+19 pts
- Q42:00Pascal Siakam makes 1-foot dunk (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MIN 103 – 104 IND · IND 41% → 61% +20IND 41% → 61%+20 pts
- Q41:43Mike Conley makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 105 – 104 IND · MIN 39% → 60% +22MIN 39% → 60%+22 pts
- Q41:11Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 108 – 105 IND · MIN 49% → 84% +34MIN 49% → 84%+34 pts
- Q441.1Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MIN 110 – 108 IND · IND 2% → 19% +18IND 2% → 19%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- IND 46%
- Fair odds
- IND -115
- MIN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 114.1 – 115.1 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +35 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +27 Elo | MIN 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 123.31st of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Points allowed | 122.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.9 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 118.32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 117.126th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.1 | Pace | 104.22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–11 | Road vs home | 20–1211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.