Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints27
- Luka DoncicAssists14
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Bulls- Onuralp BitimPoints17
- Ayo DosunmuAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–92
- Q417.0Dalen Terry bad pass (A.J. Lawson steals)127–92
- Q431.0Jaden Hardy makes free throw 2 of 2127–92
- Q431.0Jaden Hardy makes free throw 1 of 2126–92
- Q431.0Jevon Carter personal foul125–92
- Q440.1Dalen Terry makes two point shot125–92
- Q446.0Jaden Hardy makes two point shot125–90
- Q459.1Terry Taylor makes 1-foot layup (Dalen Terry assists)123–90
- Q41:09A.J. Lawson makes 1-foot layup (Dwight Powell assists)123–88
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:01P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)DAL 3 – 0 CHI · DAL 56% → 62% +6DAL 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q19:53Daniel Gafford makes tip shotDAL 7 – 2 CHI · DAL 62% → 66% +4DAL 62% → 66%+4 pts
- Q19:16Luka Doncic makes 27-foot step back jumpshotDAL 10 – 3 CHI · DAL 64% → 70% +6DAL 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q18:47Derrick Jones Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 13 – 5 CHI · DAL 66% → 71% +6DAL 66% → 71%+6 pts
- Q17:03Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)DAL 17 – 10 CHI · CHI 25% → 30% +5CHI 25% → 30%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2
- DAL 57%
- Fair odds
- DAL -125
- CHI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 118.2 – 116.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −1 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | CHI crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +50 Elo | DAL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 111.825th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 113.314th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.420th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 112.419th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 113.818th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.2 | Pace | 97.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 16–1520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.