Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints39
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints33
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- James WisemanRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game142–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter142–124
- Q49.0Malachi Flynn lost ball turnover (Dwight Powell steals)142–124
- Q420.0A.J. Lawson makes driving layup142–124
- Q429.0Marcus Sasser makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (James Wiseman assists)140–124
- Q439.0Markieff Morris makes 29-foot three pointer140–122
- Q456.1Malachi Flynn makes 8-foot two point shot137–122
- Q41:04James Wiseman defensive rebound137–120
- Q41:08Jaden Hardy misses two point shot137–120
- Q41:13Jaden Hardy defensive rebound137–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:22Marcus Sasser makes 26-foot step back jumpshotDAL 38 – 39 DET · DET 30% → 39% +9DET 30% → 39%+9 pts
- Q29:02P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL 42 – 39 DET · DAL 60% → 70% +9DAL 60% → 70%+9 pts
- Q28:37Ausar Thompson makes dunk (Jaden Ivey assists)DAL 41 – 41 DET · DET 30% → 37% +7DET 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q28:07Daniel Gafford makes 4-foot layup (Dante Exum assists)DAL 43 – 41 DET · DAL 58% → 67% +10DAL 58% → 67%+10 pts
- Q310:27Jaden Ivey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)DAL 73 – 69 DET · DET 21% → 28% +7DET 21% → 28%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 67%
- Fair odds
- DAL -189
- DET +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 121.7 – 116.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1370 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −8 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +124 Elo | DAL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 65.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 112.223rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 120.827th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −8.628th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 109.425th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 117.828th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.1 | Pace | 101.99th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–13 | Road vs home | 5–2529th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.